SBLC Jan 21 Update

January 21, 2025 - SBLC Update

Debt Ceiling Debate Continues:  Last week, the Treasury Department announced that it will begin to implement special accounting measures today to delay the date when the U.S. will no longer be able to pay its obligations.  Republicans continue strategizing how to deal with the debt limit before hitting that ”X-date.” 

One option under consideration is to lift the debt ceiling as part of the budget reconciliation package.  Budget reconciliation rules would require raising the limit by a specified amount, rather than suspending the borrowing limit to some future date.  And passage of a budget reconciliation bill will require near unanimous GOP support.  But about four dozen returning House Republicans have never voted in support of a debt ceiling hike that has been signed into law.  And 33 new GOP House members have never had to vote on any such proposal.  It is very possible that leadership would not be able to convince nearly all of those members to support hiking the debt ceiling, particularly if the reconciliation package does not also include trillions in spending cuts that themselves would garner pushback from other members of the party.

If Republicans cannot include a debt limit increase in a reconciliation bill, they will have to ask  Democrats to help passing it, likely as part of a government funding measure or a disaster aid bill.  Obviously, Democrats would demand something in return. 

House Timing on Budget Resolution:  Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) continues to push a very ambitious timeline for enactment of a budget reconciliation package.  Last week, he announced that Congress will pass a budget resolution – the first step that sets topline spending figures and unlocks the special reconciliation process – by the end of February.  Per his schedule, the GOP would conclude negotiations on the content of the reconciliation bill in March, pass it in the House by April 10, followed by a Senate vote that would deliver the bill to the President for signature by April 20.

During that same period, Congress will have to pass a bill to continue funding the federal government (current funding expires on March 14), consider a substantial supplemental disaster aid package for California, and perhaps pass an increase to the debt limit.

Many, including a number of Republicans, are skeptical that all this can happen in such a short period.

Republicans Offer Spending Cuts and Tax Revenue Raisers:  Republican groups have begun circulating options for spending cuts and tax revenue raisers to offset the cost of tax cuts they want to include in a budget reconciliation bill.  Early last week, the House Freedom Caucus, a group of far-right members, produced a short list of possible pay-fors estimated to total more than $540 billion to offset the cost of a first reconciliation bill that would focus on border security and increased defense spending only (leaving tax cuts to be treated in a second reconciliation bill).  Late in the week, someone leaked a 50-page document prepared by Republicans on the House Budget Committee listing a menu of provisions covering policy areas under the jurisdiction of multiple committees that would yield savings estimated to total $5.3 to $5.7 trillion over 10 years. Many of the proposals included in these documents would not garner sufficient GOP support to pass.  And the release of these proposals will result in organized opposition by affected groups. 

Congressional Party Ratios:  The Senate started the week with just 98 members.  But, two appointments will return the chamber to a full roster.  The Florida Governor appointed the state’s Republican Attorney General Ashley Moody to the seat vacated by former-Senator Marco Rubio, who is now the Secretary of State.  And the Ohio Governor appointed his Lieutenant Governor, Republican Jon Husted, to fill the seat vacated by Vice President J.D. Vance.  Rubio and Vance each had four years remaining in their terms.  Moody and Husted will hold their seats until Florida and Ohio hold their next regularly scheduled elections in 2026.  The candidates selected then will serve for the remaining two years of Rubio’s and Vance’s terms. 

Yesterday, Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL) resigned his seat (to take on his new role as President Trump’s national security advisor).  The new ratios in the House are 218 Republicans to 215 Democrats.  The two vacancies (the other resulted from the resignation of former-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R)) will be filled in special elections to be held on April 1.

House:  The House returns to session today, with votes scheduled though Friday.  The schedule includes three measures for consideration under a rule, requiring a simple majority vote for passage.  One of those bills is the Senate-amended version of a measure passed by the House earlier this month that would require the detention of any alien charged in the U.S. with theft (S. 5).  House acceptance of the Senate changes will send the measure to the White House for signature.  The other two relate to forest management activities on public lands (H.R. 471) and abortion (H.R. 21).

The schedule also contemplates floor votes on seven measures to be considered under suspension of the rules, requiring two-thirds majority support for passage.  That list includes bills related to shark depredation, the tracking of vegetation management activities on federal lands, the establishment of a new monument in D.C., and the digitization and online publication of federal restrictions on waterways and fishing.

Senate:  Yesterday, the Senate confirmed the nomination of Marco Rubio to be Secretary of State.  It could vote this week on the nominations of John Ratcliffe to lead the CIA and Pete Hegseth to be the Secretary of Defense or Kristi Noem to be the Secretary of Homeland Security.  Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) previously indicated that he will keep the chamber in session on weekends to confirm Trump’s high-level nominees as quickly as possible. 

The Senate also will work on a procedural motion to advance an abortion bill similar to the abortion bill scheduled for a House floor vote this week.

Wednesday, January 22, 10:00 am

House Ways and Means Committee

Hearing:  Member Day Hearing on Matters Within the Committee’s Tax Jurisdiction

Wednesday, January 22, 10:00 am

House Judiciary Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement Subcommittee

Hearing:  Restoring Immigration Enforcement in America

It was recently brought to the attention of AICC that the AICC Founding Members List used for the 50th anniversary celebration and commemorative book was missing one founding company.

Packaging Design Corporation of Burr Ridge, IL still proudly displays its AICC Charter Member certificate. AICC appreciates Packaging Design President Scott Jones bringing this matter to our attention. Founded in 1968, Packaging Design has been a proud Independent that predates AICC’s origins.