SBLC Hill update - January 12

Appropriations: Congress has 18 days to pass the remaining nine appropriations bills and avoid a partial government shutdown.

Last week, the House passed a three-bill minibus comprised of Energy-Water, Interior, and Commerce-Justice-State (C-J-S) appropriations bills.  But it took some dealing to get there.  When the package came up in the Rules Committee last Tuesday, far-right members held up proceedings based on their opposition to some of the earmarks included in the C-J-S bill and the lack of opportunity for rank-and-file members to offer amendments.  The Committee recessed without reporting out the rule to accompany the bill.  But on Wednesday, leadership and objecting members landed on a compromise to delete a particularly contentious Democratic earmark via report language and to split up the package for purposes of the floor vote, so that members could oppose the C-J-S bill while backing the other two bills.  Republican leaders also promised their members more input on appropriations bills, especially earmarks, starting with the next minibus.  The full House passed all three components of the spending package on Thursday, by a vote of 397-28.

The Senate begin its consideration of the House-passed minibus this week.  Senate Democrats plan to offer some contentious amendments, including one that will challenge the President’s push to dismantle a climate research lab in Colorado and another that would challenge the administration’s seizure of Venezuelan oil.  

Yesterday evening, House and Senate appropriators released bipartisan text of the next appropriations minibus – this oneincludes Financial Services-General Government and State-Foreign Operations spending bills.  They had hoped that the package would also include the Homeland Security bill, but negotiations on that measure fell apart following the ICE shooting of a woman in Minnesota last week.  House leadership hopes to bring up the two-bill package for a floor vote this week.  

Healthcare Votes Continue: Last week the House passed a Democratic bill to implement a clean extension of the ACA enhanced premium tax credits for three years.  Seventeen Republicans voted for the bill:  Reps. Mike Carey (R-OH), Robert Breshnahan (R-PA), Monica De La Cruz (R-TX), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), Andrew Garbarino (R-NY), Jeff Hurd (R-CO), David Joyce (R-OH), Thomas Kean (R-NJ), Nick LaLota (R-NY), Mike Lawler (R-NY), Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA), Max Miller (R-OH), Zach Nunn (R-IA), Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL), Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), David Valado (R-CA), and Rob Whitman (R-VA).  The vote was a big political win for House Democrats.

Last week, President Trump reiterated his demands that Congress should take up healthcare legislation that directs federal funds to health savings accounts or directly to individuals to buy insurance.  He also urged Republicans to be flexible on the Hyde Amendment, which forbids spending federal funds on abortion.  (Conservatives have opposed health care subsidies, in part, based on arguments that the money goes to abortion services in some states.)  The President’s comments sparked immediate outrage from antiabortion groups and pushback from GOP leaders and rank-and-file members.  GOP members have expressed frustration that the President is putting them in a tough spot by publicly pushing for a deal but refusing to engage in negotiations to move recalcitrant members of their party.

MAGA freshman Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) is leading bipartisan negotiations among a dozen or so Senators to find a compromise solution.  He has claimed decent consensus for a two-year extension of the enhanced ACA premium credits, extension of the open enrollment period into March, an increased income cap to qualify for the credits, and introduction of a new minimum floor for premiums.  But the increased attention on Hyde Amendment issues has made it more difficult to reach a deal.  Some Republicans are now insisting on abortion funding restrictions that go beyond current law, which Democrats will not accept.

Any deal would need more than the bare minimum support from rank-and-file Republicans for Senate leadership to move it, either as a standalone measure or as part of a larger legislative vehicle.  Adding to the difficulty, President Trump said yesterday that he might veto any bill that extends the ACA subsidies.

Senate Rebuke of Trump Foreign Policy: The administration’s approach to foreign policy, especially over the past couple weeks, has angered Democrats and is creating headaches for some Republicans in Congress.  

In a rare public rebuke of President Trump, five Republicans voted last week to advance to consideration of a Senate war powers resolution that would force the President to seek congressional approval before taking any new military action in Venezuela.  President Trump angrily responded that those members – Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Josh Hawley (R-MO), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Rand Paul (R-KY), and Todd Young (R-IN) – should never again be elected to public office.  The Senate will hold another procedural vote on the resolution this week, followed by debate and consideration of amendments, and finally a vote on final passage.  But even if the resolution passes, it would represent only a symbolic loss for President Trump – House Republicans might not have the same appetite to challenge him and even if they did, the measure does not have sufficient support to override a veto.

Reconciliation 2.0?: Republican Study Committee Chairman August Pfluger (R-TX) said that the group will release a blueprint this week for a second budget reconciliation package.  Congressional Republicans remain divided on whether to attempt to pass a second party-line bill.

New House Ratios: Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) sadly died last week.  As a result, Republicans will hold 218 seats to Democrats 213.  Republicans retain their two-vote majority.  But because Rep. Tom Massie (R-KY) routinely votes against his party, the GOP really is operating with a one-vote majority in the House.

California Governor Gavin Newsom has two weeks from the date of the vacancy to set a special election to fill the seat.  The district is solidly Republican now.  But it should flip to a solid Democratic seat in the fall elections because of upcoming changes to the state’s district map.

Texas will hold a special election on January 31 to fill the seat of the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-TX).  A Democrat should win that race.

Following the resignation of former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) last week, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp set a special election on March 10 to fill her seat.  All candidates, regardless of party affiliation, will run on one ballot.  If no one wins a majority (which is likely), the top two finishers will compete in a runoff election on April 7.  The district is solidly Republican.

New Jersey will hold a special election on April 16 to replace Democratic Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill.  Democrats are heavily favored to win that seat.